If anyone tells you exactly where mortgage rates or home prices will be six months from now, be careful.
That is not a knock on market knowledge. It is just the truth. Real estate professionals can explain what is happening right now, what trade-offs buyers are facing, and how different choices may play out. But no Realtor can honestly promise what rates, prices, inventory, or competition will do next.
Jesse Scheel’s view is pretty direct: “Anyone who tells you what it’s gonna be is a liar.” His approach is to tell buyers what the rate is that day, talk through current conditions, and then help them make a decision based on their actual life, not somebody’s prediction.
For Minnesota and Arizona buyers who feel stuck, that matters. Waiting may be the right move. Buying may be the right move. But waiting is not automatically safer just because the headlines are loud.
Why waiting can feel safer than it really is
When rates are higher than buyers want, prices feel uncomfortable, or the news is full of uncertainty, pausing the search can feel responsible.
Sometimes it is.
If your budget is too tight, your job situation is unstable, your timeline is flexible, or you do not feel ready for the responsibility of owning a home, waiting may be the right call. There is nothing wrong with stepping back until the numbers make sense.
The problem is assuming that waiting removes risk.
It does not. It just changes the risk.
If you wait, several things could happen:
- Rates could move down, stay similar, or move up.
- Home prices in your target area could soften, hold, or rise.
- More inventory could come on the market, or the homes you want could remain limited.
- Competition could ease, or more buyers could jump back in if rates improve.
- Your personal situation could change before the market does.
None of those outcomes are guaranteed. That is the point.
Waiting can be a strategy when it is tied to a clear reason. Waiting because someone promised the market will be better later is a different thing.
Rates matter, but predictions should not run the whole decision
Mortgage rates affect monthly payment, affordability, and comfort. Buyers should take them seriously.
But rate prediction is not the same as rate planning.
A practical buyer conversation should start with current facts: what a lender says you qualify for today, what your estimated monthly payment looks like today, and what homes are actually available in the locations you are considering today.
From there, you can stress-test the decision. Ask questions like:
- If rates stayed around today’s level, would I still be comfortable buying?
- If rates moved higher, would I regret waiting?
- If rates moved lower and competition increased, would I still be able to compete?
- If I bought now, could I live with the payment without depending on a refinance?
That last question is important. A refinance may be possible later if rates change, but it should not be treated like a guarantee. A lender can help explain what options may exist, what the costs could be, and what assumptions are realistic.
Jesse can help you understand how rates are affecting buyer behavior and negotiations in the current market. For the actual loan numbers, payment scenarios, and qualification details, that conversation belongs with a lender.
Prices and headlines are not the same as your market
National housing headlines can be useful background, but they do not always tell you what is happening in the specific price point, neighborhood, or property type you are targeting.
A buyer in a smaller Minnesota market may be dealing with a different set of conditions than a buyer in Arizona. Even inside Arizona, the experience can change depending on whether you are looking at Phoenix, Scottsdale, a newer build farther out, or a resale home in a tighter location.
The same is true in Minnesota. Seasonality, local inventory, seller motivation, and the specific home all matter.
That is why timing should not be reduced to “the market is good” or “the market is bad.” A better question is: what is available for your budget, in your location, under today’s terms?
If the homes that fit your life are not showing up, waiting may make sense. If the right fit appears and the payment works, waiting just because of a headline may cost you an opportunity.
Personal timing matters more than market guessing
One of Jesse’s first questions for buyers is simple: “What’s your timeline like right now?”
That question matters because real estate decisions do not happen in a vacuum. Buyers are often dealing with leases, school calendars, job changes, family needs, custody schedules, retirement plans, relocation, or the sale of another home.
A buyer with no deadline and a tight budget can afford to be patient. A buyer who needs to move within 60 days because of a lease or life change has a different decision to make.
Your timing decision should include:
- Your current monthly payment comfort
- Your available cash for down payment, closing costs, and reserves
- Your job and income stability
- Your expected time in the home
- Your flexibility on location and property condition
- Your tolerance for market uncertainty
- Your real-life deadline, if you have one
This is where “buy now or wait” becomes personal. Two buyers can look at the same rate and the same market and make different smart decisions.
When waiting may make sense
Waiting may be the right move if your current numbers do not work. If the payment would make life stressful, if you do not have enough reserves, or if you are not sure where you want to live, forcing a purchase is not wise.
It may also make sense to wait if you are early in the process and have not talked with a lender yet. Guessing at affordability based on online calculators or old assumptions can lead to wasted time. Getting pre-qualified or pre-approved gives you a clearer starting point.
Waiting may also be reasonable if your target homes are not available. If your must-have location, home type, or price point is not lining up, patience can be better than stretching into something that does not fit.
When buying now may make sense
Buying now may make sense if the payment works, your life timeline is real, and you find a home that fits your goals and budget.
It may also make sense if waiting would create its own costs. Rent, temporary housing, storage, commuting, uncertainty, and missed opportunities all matter. Those costs do not automatically mean you should buy, but they should be part of the conversation.
In some markets, waiting for a lower rate could also mean facing more competition later. That is not a prediction. It is a trade-off to consider. If more buyers return to the market at the same time, the buying experience can change.
The honest answer is not “buy now before it is too late.” It is also not “wait until everything is perfect.” The honest answer is: look at the current facts and decide whether the risk of buying is better or worse than the risk of waiting.
A practical next step
If you are unsure, do not start with predictions. Start with a conversation.
Talk with a lender about today’s numbers. Look at what homes are actually available in your target area. Clarify your timeline. Then decide whether buying now, waiting, or preparing quietly makes the most sense.
If you are thinking about buying in Minnesota or Arizona and feel stuck on timing, reach out to Jesse. He can help you talk through the trade-offs, look at current market conditions, and decide on the next step without pretending anyone can predict the future.
For lending, tax, legal, title, insurance, or inspection questions, talk with the appropriate licensed professional. Jesse can help you know what questions to ask and how those answers fit into the bigger real estate decision.
Contact Jesse here: https://www.jessescheel.com/contact.php
Frequently asked questions
I waiting to buy a home afer if mortgage rate might drop?
Not automatically. Rate could move down, tay imilar, or move up, o the afer approach i to evaluate today’ affordability and your timeline in tead of relying on a prediction.
How hould Minne ota or Arizona buyer think about rate before deciding to buy?
Start with current lender number , not gue e . Look at the payment you can afford today, then con ider how you would feel if rate changed in either direction.
When doe it make en e for a buyer to wait?
Waiting may make en e if the current payment i uncomfortable, your job or life ituation i un table, you do not know where you want to live, or the right home are not available in your budget.
When might buying now be rea onable de pite uncertainty?
Buying now may be rea onable if the payment work , your timeline i real, and you find a home that fit your goal and budget. The key i not depending on a future refinance or price change to make the deci ion work.
Can Je e Scheel predict where rate or price will be later thi year?
No. Je e’ approach i to di cu current condition and trade-off , then help buyer make timing deci ion ba ed on fact , affordability, and per onal circum tance .